Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 November 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 06/0346Z from Region 2205 (N15E46). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 575 km/s at 05/2123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/2047Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M55%55%55%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 136
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  013/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  007/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%30%30%

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