Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 November 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 03/2240Z from Region 2205 (N14E84). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 04/2052Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 04/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Nov) with a slight chance for minor storm conditions, quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Nov 129
  Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  009/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%30%25%

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