Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 October 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 16/1303Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at 16/1500Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2013Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 139
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 150/160/170
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  008/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%30%30%

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