Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels. A M1 flare
occurred at 14/1837 UTC from a region around the East limb. A second
event occurred shortly after, with a peak of M2 so far, but remains in
progress at the time of this report. There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk. No flares occurred from the regions
currently on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 457 km/s at 14/1339Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/1459Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 14/2019Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 120 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 130/140/140 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 010/012-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 25% |
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