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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 10/1647Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Oct) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at 10/1819Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/0155Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M20%20%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 121
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm25%05%05%

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