Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 October 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 09/0158Z from Region 2182 (S14W58). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 397 km/s at 09/0122Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/1333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M40%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 119
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm25%25%20%

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