Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 October 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1600Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at 06/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 259 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Oct 125
  Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        07 Oct 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Oct  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  006/007-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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