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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 20/1120Z from Region 2093 (S09E08). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (21 Jun) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 512 km/s at 20/2001Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/1928Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 487 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Jun), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (22 Jun) with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection from 19 June, and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Class M45%35%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jun 102
  Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        20 Jun 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  006/005-013/018-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%40%40%
Minor storm01%25%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%35%35%

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