Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
12/1021Z from Region 2087 (S18E43). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14
Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at
12/0203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2021Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 12/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jun). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 175 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 170/165/155 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 012/018-016/020-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 05% |
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