Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 June 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 12/1021Z from Region 2087 (S18E43). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at 12/0203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 12/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 175
  Predicted    13 Jun-15 Jun 170/165/155
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  012/018-016/020-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm 20%25%05%
Major-severe storm 01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 30%20%10%
Major-severe storm 50%25%05%

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