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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 25/1753Z from Region 2065 (S19W73). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 473 km/s at 25/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 204 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 May, 28 May).
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M 20%20%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 113
  Predicted    26 May-28 May 112/112/110
  90 Day Mean        25 May 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May   NA/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 30%15%15%
Major-severe storm 20%05%05%

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