Viewing archive of Friday, 25 April 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 25/0027Z from Region 2035, which rotated off of the solar disk on 23 April. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (27 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at 24/2300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/2227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1075 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Class M20%15%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Apr 125
  Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 120/118/115
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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