Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 April 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 22/1137Z from Region 2035 (S13W71). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 554 km/s at 21/2307Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 22/1408Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M50%40%30%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 145
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  018/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  007/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%30%30%

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