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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 20/0813Z from Region 2033 (N11W84). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (21 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 765 km/s at 20/1125Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 20/1114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1752Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 51 pfu at 19/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 237 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (23 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (21 Apr, 22 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
Class M 55%50%50%
Class X 10%05%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Apr 163
  Predicted    21 Apr-23 Apr 165/160/150
  90 Day Mean        20 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  013/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Apr  016/023
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  016/020-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm 25%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm 20%25%20%
Major-severe storm 60%30%25%

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