Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 March 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/1102Z from Region 2014 (S13W19). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 554 km/s at 26/0049Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 26/1121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0055Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Mar 153
  Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        26 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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