Viewing archive of Monday, 24 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0010Z from Region 2014 (S14E06). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar,
27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 521 km/s at
23/2318Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (27 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 159 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 160/165/160 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 008/008-011/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 05% |
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