Viewing archive of Monday, 17 March 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 17/0045Z from Region 2002 (S18W58). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 338 km/s at 17/1426Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M 35%35%35%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 136
  Predicted    18 Mar-20 Mar 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  011/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 20%05%05%

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