Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2/Sn event observed
at 12/1105Z from Region 1996 (N14W78). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 339 km/s at
11/2334Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/2043Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2020Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 148 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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