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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 08/2341Z from Region 2002 (S19E64). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 405 km/s at 08/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 146
  Predicted    10 Mar-12 Mar 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  010/012-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%20%20%
Major-severe storm 30%20%10%

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