Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 March 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/0455Z from Region 1991 (S24W13). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 457 km/s at 04/1711Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1125Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 03/2110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Mar 158
  Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        04 Mar 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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