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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 03/1558Z from Region 1989 (N08W42). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at 03/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0245Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0114Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at 02/2105Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Mar 161
  Predicted    04 Mar-06 Mar 160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        03 Mar 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Mar  006/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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