Viewing archive of Monday, 3 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1558Z from Region 1989 (N08W42). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
377 km/s at 03/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0245Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at
02/2105Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06
Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 161 Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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