Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 20/0756Z from Region 1976 (S14W82). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 743 km/s at 20/0440Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 20/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 20/0507Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 20/0925Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
Class M35%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Feb 156
  Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        20 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  030/042
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Feb  025/038
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  015/020-013/012-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%40%40%

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