Viewing archive of Friday, 14 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/0257Z from Region 1974 (S12W37). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 471 km/s at 14/0700Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 14/1321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1213 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (15 Feb), unsettled to active levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 167
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 165/160/160
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  006/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  028/040-015/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%15%
Minor storm40%20%05%
Major-severe storm20%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm75%55%25%

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