Viewing archive of Friday, 7 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/0456Z from Region 1967 (S13W64). Region 1968 (N13W59) also produced
an M1/1n at 07/1029 UTC. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions
on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Feb,
09 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
464 km/s at 06/2352Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1853Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/2043Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (10
Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 178 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 175/165/155 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 012/015-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 25% |
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