Viewing archive of Friday, 7 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 07/0456Z from Region 1967 (S13W64). Region 1968 (N13W59) also produced an M1/1n at 07/1029 UTC. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 464 km/s at 06/2352Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1853Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/2043Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (10 Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
Class M60%60%40%
Class X20%20%10%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Feb 178
  Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 175/165/155
  90 Day Mean        07 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Feb  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  012/015-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%15%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%45%25%

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