Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/0658Z from Region 1959 (S24E58). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 329 km/s at 18/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (20 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 128
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  006/005-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%25%05%

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