Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0216Z from Region 1946 (N09W35). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11
Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
527 km/s at 09/1947Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 09/2008Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1026 pfu at
09/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3073 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (10 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10
Jan), are expected to cross threshold on day two (11 Jan) and are likely
to cross threshold on day three (12 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 90% | 70% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 184 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 015/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 025/040-017/015-012/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 50% | 45% |
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