Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0216Z from Region 1946 (N09W35). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 527 km/s at 09/1947Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 09/2008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0114Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1026 pfu at 09/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3073 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (10 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10 Jan), are expected to cross threshold on day two (11 Jan) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (12 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton99%90%70%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 184
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  015/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  025/040-017/015-012/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%45%35%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm50%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm15%30%35%
Major-severe storm85%50%45%

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