Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event observed at
08/0347Z from Region 1947 (N11W98). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10
Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
398 km/s at 07/2141Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2017Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2352Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 972 pfu at
08/2030Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 07/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 792 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (09 Jan), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (10 Jan) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (11 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days
one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 195 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 195/195/195 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 041/073-025/041-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 90% | 85% | 50% |
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