Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event observed at 08/0347Z from Region 1947 (N11W98). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at 07/2141Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2352Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 972 pfu at 08/2030Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 07/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 792 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (09 Jan), unsettled to severe storm levels on day two (10 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (11 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 50%50%50%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jan 195
  Predicted    09 Jan-11 Jan 195/195/195
  90 Day Mean        08 Jan 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jan  007/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  041/073-025/041-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%45%
Minor storm 35%30%10%
Major-severe storm 50%50%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%05%10%
Minor storm 10%15%30%
Major-severe storm 90%85%50%

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