Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
07/1832Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09
Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
435 km/s at 07/1429Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/1656Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1555Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34 pfu at
06/2200Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 07/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2692 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jan), active to major
storm levels on day two (09 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (10 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one,
two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | Red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 237 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 195/195/190 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 25% | 05% |
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