Viewing archive of Friday, 3 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/2218Z from Region 1944 (S08E64). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 655 km/s at 02/2138Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/1452Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 990 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jan 182
  Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 185/185/190
  90 Day Mean        03 Jan 146

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  015/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jan  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

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