Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 December 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/2045Z from Region 1916 (S12W78). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec,
14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
10/2327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (13 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 171 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 168/165/160 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 005/005-011/012-017/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 70% | 65% |
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