Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 November 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23/0232Z from Region 1904 (N12W67). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 393 km/s at 23/1403Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0723Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M25%25%10%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 136
  Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 140/135/130
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  006/005-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%20%25%

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