Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 November 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0232Z from Region 1904 (N12W67). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
393 km/s at 23/1403Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1344Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0723Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 136 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 006/005-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
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