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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 22/1445Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 351 km/s at 22/1920Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 143
  Predicted    23 Nov-25 Nov 140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  003/004
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 10%10%10%

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