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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0818Z from Region 1890 (S09E35). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 411 km/s at 04/2109Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 234 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M45%45%45%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 149
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%20%10%

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