Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 22/2120Z from Region 1875 (N07E04). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at 23/0440Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0750Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 679 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Oct, 26 Oct) and active levels on day two (25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Oct 153
  Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 160/165/160
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  013/015-020/025-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%35%

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