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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 21/0813Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 408 km/s at 21/1942Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1703Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/1416Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3951 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (22 Oct, 24 Oct) and quiet levels on day two (23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Oct 136
  Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  009/008-006/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%20%

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