Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/2336Z from Region 1865 (S21W21). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 575 km/s at 15/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 922 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 128
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  013/015-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%05%

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