Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/2307Z from Region 1861 (S09W05). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 404 km/s at
12/1456Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2030Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1455 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 128 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 006/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
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