Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 11/2307Z from Region 1861 (S09W05). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 404 km/s at 12/1456Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1455 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Oct 128
  Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        12 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  006/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%15%

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