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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 397 km/s at 16/0549Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 095
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  009/015-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%15%
Minor storm35%35%25%
Major-severe storm45%25%10%

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