Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 September 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/2250Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at 06/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1006 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels with a chance for unsettled to active levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Sep 099
  Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  006/005-007/010-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%30%30%

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