Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug,
05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 351 km/s at
03/1815Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2022Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 901 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (05 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 107 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-009/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 40% | 25% |
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