Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 July 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
21/0844Z from Region 1800 (S08E22). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at
21/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3740 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 109 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 004/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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