Viewing archive of Monday, 15 July 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 15/1055Z from Region 1791 (S14E04). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at 15/1151Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/2248Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 114
  Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  015/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  021/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  009/008-009/010-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%25%50%

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