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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 24/1132Z from Region 1778 (S16E49). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flares on day one (25 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (26 Jun) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 618 km/s at 24/1112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/2115Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at 24/0520Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10700 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Jun, 26 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Jun), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two and three (26-27 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M30%20%10%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton30%20%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jun 121
  Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        24 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  016/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  009/010-006/008-009/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%15%40%

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