Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 June 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 15/0400Z from Region 1774 (S18E58). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at 15/2057Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/0626Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 885 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (16 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jun 111
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  005/005-006/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%20%20%

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