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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 539 km/s at 06/0239Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 06/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Jun, 08 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jun 109
  Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 110/105/105
  90 Day Mean        06 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  009/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jun  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  016/018-017/018-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%25%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm65%65%30%

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