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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 846 km/s at 28/0351Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 49652 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 May, 30 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (31 May).
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 May 105
  Predicted   29 May-31 May 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        28 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 May  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  004/005-005/005-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%20%

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