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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/0523Z from Region 1736 (S08W78). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (10 May) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 529 km/s at 09/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 749 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 May, 11 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 May).
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M35%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 May 128
  Predicted   10 May-12 May 125/115/115
  90 Day Mean        09 May 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  005/005-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%20%

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