Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
01/0126Z from Region 1730 (S18W48). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May,
04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 517 km/s at 01/0913Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/0703Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 01/0529Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 802
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 May) and quiet levels on day three (04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 159 Predicted 02 May-04 May 165/170/165 90 Day Mean 01 May 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 011/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 10% |
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