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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/0036Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for an M-class flare on all three days (21-23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft remained around 300km/s. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/1925Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Apr 105
  Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        20 Apr 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Apr  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  004/005-006/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%20%30%

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