Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 March 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/1253Z from Region 1698 (S19W72). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 767 km/s at 17/1007Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 17/0744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 17/0752Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 17/0700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M20%20%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 126
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 120/115/110
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  029/046
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  018/025-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%05%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm50%20%05%

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