Viewing archive of Friday, 11 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 11 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0911Z from Region 1654 (N08E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate
levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at
11/1941Z. Total IMF reached 8.7 nT at 11/2036Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 11/2029Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13
Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 172 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
Latest news
Monday, 22 April 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
Saturday, 23 March 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Wednesday, 20 March 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Latest forum messages
IMF - BT strength 5What are these long and thin eruptions? 6AR 3637, 3638, 3643 89Unproven theories 341Space Weather Memes 338
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/04/25 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 133.4 +25.6 |