Viewing archive of Friday, 11 January 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 11 2235 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/0911Z from Region 1654 (N08E31). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at 11/1941Z. Total IMF reached 8.7 nT at 11/2036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 11/2029Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 172
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

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